Monday, May 6, 2013

Israel Strikes Syria

Israel struck military targets in Syria. This follows an air strike Thursday.

It would be difficult for me to express exactly how bad this could be. On one hand Israel could have the tacic, albeit silent, consent of the US and several Arab nations in which case not much of anything will happen. However it is quite possible that is not the case at which point this could escalate local tensions and small scale violence or cause a world ending war with a nuclear component (this absolute worst case is very unlikely).

It is interesting that the first target was reportedly a load of Iranian missiles destined for Hezbollah. This doesn't matter really except that it shows the depth of complication this situation has. It is both a civil war and a proxy war. Seriously it's like a game of 3d chess with multiple sets of mortal enemies. Also this strike sort of puts a hole in the "Syria's AA capabilities are so great" argument. If Israel could conduct an air strike the US certainly could. Interesting stuff for sure.



Anonymous said...

Even with the IRON DOME defense, it is much easier to destroy these new advanced missiles that will inevitably used against Israel, while they are on the ground in transit or storage than trying to shoot them out of the air after they have been launched.

Also much cheaper....

Mudbug said...

I'm just wondering how George W Bush is going to get blamed for this.

Aesop said...

Meh. Considering who supplies the parts for the rockets that keep falling on Israel from Hezbollah in Gaza, they could probably find a reason that would withstand serious scrutiny to launch airstrikes in any direction, most days.

If San Diego had been hit by thousands of rockets from Tijuana over the last few years, Baja California would now be an American province, so it's not like they're being impatient.

The serious question is when they're finally just going to get tired of being a convenient pinata and decide the best place for the folks in Gaza is Egypt and shove them there at the front of tanks and bulldozers.

That's what's going to kick off the regional party, and why they've put up with the crap as long as they have.

riverrider said...

at first reaction i thought the same thing. "holy crap here comes armageddon." but the lack of any response by the arabs tells me they were complicit or at least don't care. that said, the second attach was a "research facility" with a thermobaric bomb. those are normally used when you need to consume by fire everything in the target area, say a chem/bio stockpile? maybe at u.s. request? the lack of verbal/actual saber rattling is telling, and curious. i thought sure that an israeli attack would provoke the "global jihad."

Ryan said...

Riverrider, That other nations were complicit seems quite likely. However as more reporting comes in the first attack seems to be more Hezbollah weapons proliferation related than civil war related.

Plus the normal level of violence over there is pretty high.

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