Saturday, April 28, 2018

Evaluating and Managing Risks 1 of 4

We are going to do a series on evaluating and managing risk. Survivalists habitually screw this up. They screw it up in a couple of ways. First and foremost survivalists often fail to use a disciplined program to do this. They fail to use evidence based analysis to assign relative, if not absolute probability to risks. Furthermore by taking an artificially narrow view of what they are preparing for they often miss many far more likely risks!

To say it bluntly I see many, if not most, survivalists screwing up by putting time/ energy/ resources into preparing for very unlikely or outright fantasy scenarios instead of far more likely real world risks. Survivalists do this for a few reasons. The lack of a disciplined approach is first. Listening disproportionately to well meaning ‘experts’ who almost surely failed to use a disciplined approach in is number two. Third is that people avoid tough problems in favor of fantasy problems that justify their mid allocation of resources and the gaping holes in their plans.

This is part one which is an introduction. My tentative plan is to do 3 more posts on this topic in the next couple of weeks. I will look at a couple of risk management techniques, how to prepare for a risk in a tiered organized way and then wrap it all together.

I hope this will provoke some thought and get you all to think critically about your own preparations. 


Meister said...

Hmmm. I really like this line of thinking, as I've posted about it many times. Might have to throw something together myself. Cheers!

Matt LBS said...

Good stuff. Lookinng forward to it.

Simon Maguire said...

Is there any one here??????

Theother Ryan said...


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