Showing posts with label risk. Show all posts
Showing posts with label risk. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 23, 2018

Evaluating and Managing Risk Part 3: Ryans SWOT Analysis

So far we introduced the topic of Evaluating and Managing Risk and discussed some systematic ways to look at and manage risk by discussing SWOT and Risk Management.


Below is a SWOT Analysis I did for myself.




I knew all of these things but seeing them together was still interesting. The area that jumped out to use risk management on are my currently not diverse income and our very divided society. I am going to do that and will post it as part 4 of this series in the next few days.


It looks like this will be a 6 part series. I would have waited to get the next part and include it in this but the weekend might get busy. So the risk management piece will be part 4. In part 5 I will apply a deliberate phased process for managing a specific risk. It is not doctrinal or codified but I think it makes a lot of sense and may help people. Part 6 will be the conclusion.



Evaluating and Managing Risk: Quote for perspective

I was watching Bates Motel and this quote jumped out at me.

Wednesday, May 16, 2018

Life and Risk Management

Hey Folks, I figured I should say hello. Things have been busy. On a positive note for me and by default you all school just finished up. Waiting for grades to post but if everything goes well I will be done. I can use a mental/ financial/ emotional break for awhile. With more available time I may blog more. No promises but it might happen.

Anyway our friend Meister did a Couple of posts about risk management which are worth looking at. He brings up some excellent points. Specifically looking objectively at our potential risks, focusing on more realistic risks instead of unrealistic ones, mitigating risk whenever possible, making are the residual risk is worth the benefits and constantly reassessing. You all should go there and leave a comment to encourage his efforts.

My next risk management post is written. It is 6 pages long albeit with some lists and pictures. I am going to review it and hopefully get it out to you all this week.

For me currently the big pushes are financial and fitness. I need to rebuild some savings and plan for a transition. Also lose a shade under 20 lbs and get faster. Other then that my main goals are rounding stuff out to really get my systems right.

If it works out ok I have some training opportunities on the horizon but that’s not really my focus right now.

So anyway I’m not dead and that’s what is up with me. 

Saturday, April 28, 2018

Evaluating and Managing Risks 1 of 4

We are going to do a series on evaluating and managing risk. Survivalists habitually screw this up. They screw it up in a couple of ways. First and foremost survivalists often fail to use a disciplined program to do this. They fail to use evidence based analysis to assign relative, if not absolute probability to risks. Furthermore by taking an artificially narrow view of what they are preparing for they often miss many far more likely risks!

To say it bluntly I see many, if not most, survivalists screwing up by putting time/ energy/ resources into preparing for very unlikely or outright fantasy scenarios instead of far more likely real world risks. Survivalists do this for a few reasons. The lack of a disciplined approach is first. Listening disproportionately to well meaning ‘experts’ who almost surely failed to use a disciplined approach in is number two. Third is that people avoid tough problems in favor of fantasy problems that justify their mid allocation of resources and the gaping holes in their plans.

This is part one which is an introduction. My tentative plan is to do 3 more posts on this topic in the next couple of weeks. I will look at a couple of risk management techniques, how to prepare for a risk in a tiered organized way and then wrap it all together.

I hope this will provoke some thought and get you all to think critically about your own preparations. 

Sunday, May 19, 2013

Accepting Prudent Risk

The concept of risk is something survivalists/ preppers are generally adverse to. We like to have this fantasy that we can somehow manage every risk. This is sadly not reality. In failing to acknowledge that risk inherently exists we do not make choices to manage it. Like any other choice when we do not make it the choice gets passed by in an unintentional way. Letting these decisions automatically make themselves can have disastrous results.

The benefit of assessing all the risks of a plan is that you can see the whole picture, weigh things and then make an intentional choice about which risks you are most comfortable making. Inevitably you will try to mitigate these risks and may be successful to some degree.

Let us look at a potential decision and the risks on both sides of it.

Where to live:

Option 1- Live in or immediately near(say 5 miles) a small town. Risk- People and crime could trickle in from town. In a WROL you might get sucked into some sort of tyrannical little fiefdom.

Option 2- Live 50+ miles from town in a perfect Rawlesian retreat. Risk- Earning a living will be difficult and replacing jobs could be impossible. If someone is seriously injured you are way outside of the golden hour. If things go WROL and you get attacked nobody is coming to help.  

Conclusion- The point is that each side of this proverbial coin has risk. Depending on your family, medical status, group setup and finances either answer could be right. What is best for the Smith's might not be for the Johnson clan.

The point is that 1) risk is inevitable and it exists in all choices. 2) By assessing risk you can make intentional choices that best suit your life and 3) Intentionally choosing the risks you are most able to handle (or mitigate in some way) will lead to better outcomes than just watching things happen.



Saturday, November 5, 2011

Crazy Market and Appetite for Risk

I bought a little bit of silver about a week back. I was happy that spot was down a buck, since then spot is down another 9 dollars. I sure bet right on that one. It is probably a nice “dip” if you didn’t blow your wad a week ago like I did. Stocks are down significantly as well. I think it is pretty apparent that Europe is nowhere near done with its fiscal troubles and a Greek default is getting more and more likely.
I don’t know what will happen but we are probably in for a wild ride.

Interestingly I bought stocks awhile back. I do not regret that decision. On the long timeline I am looking at stocks are probably (more so in certain areas) a bargain. However in the short run I do not have a clue what is going to happen. Interestingly a co worker recently bought a bunch of stock on credit in the last couple of days. He figured they will bounce back and he will make some easy money. I wish the guy the best.
That got me to thinking about appetite for risk. There is of course a definite relationship between risk and reward or more accurately put potential for rewards. Also leverage (which we normal people call debt) lets you theoretically raise profits and when it works well it works very well indeed. However when it works badly things come crashing down like a house of cards. Instead of your plan going to heck, your plan goes to heck and now you have to service this debt.

I hesitate to say what is right or wrong for anybody. It depends almost entirely on what you are comfortable with.  I’ve heard it said that if something will leave you up worrying at night you should not put money into it and that makes sense. There is definitely a human component there. I have some appetite for risk as I invest in stocks and relatively more risky areas like energy and in developing markets. However I do it with cash, cash that while it would not be ideal I can afford to lose. Worst case if I take a big hit (especially now while we are relatively young) we call it an expensive lesson and move on.  Personally for me it is about a specific pool of money for a specific thing.  Also since we have some of our bases covered by putting some money away for emergencies and not having debt we have more options and can afford to put money toward something with an element of risk. The money we need to feed ourselves if my income is disrupted is not sitting in some stock that might be wildly down (or up) at any given time.
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