Showing posts with label shortages. Show all posts
Showing posts with label shortages. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 7, 2014

Stocking Up Causes Shortages?

My post Ammo is Back: Stock Up If You Need It! received a comment today. I do not moderate comments on recent posts but do on older ones. I do this to become aware of them so I can see them and respond, also a high percentage are spam. The comment was:

"People who "stock up" on ammo because they see it in a store are the cause for the shortage. It's like the toilet paper shortage long ago, people make the problem and it's an endless circle."

 Fundamentally this comment is seriously flawed. People who stock up on an item, even to quantities some would consider excessive, during normal times do not cause shortages. These are, minus .22lr totally normal times in terms of gun and ammo availability. Let us try a little exercise.....

Say I purchased all 47 cases of of Tula 124 gr 7.62x39  JHP Lucky Gunner currently has in stock at the excellent price of $219/1k. What impact would me purchasing all that Tula 124 gr JHP ammo have? They would be out of that type of ammo for a little while. Say for the sake of this discussion they did not have cases of Tula FMJ, Wolf and Red Star in abundance all under a quarter a round. 

Impact? For a couple days or a week people looking to purchase 7.62x39 ammo by the case would have to hold off or go through one of many other online vendors. In short while the other guys do not offer live inventories (so you KNOW they have it in stock) and fast shipping there would be no real impact. This type of stocking up does not cause or contribute in a meaningful way to any shortages.

The panic purchases during a shortage can certainly on a large level in fact cause shortages. It is a self perpetuating cycle. People think an item is rare so when they see it they buy a bunch, even if they do not need any. This leads to more empty shelves and more folks feeling desperate and buying all they see of the item. It is a vicious cycle.

However a guy who bought ammo BEFORE THE SHORTAGE does not cause it and arguably makes it a tiny bit better by not being part of the herd of folks looking for a rare high demand item.


Thursday, October 2, 2014

Buying a .22lr These Days

Wifey asked me a question out of the blue yesterday "Would you recommend somebody around here buy a .22(lr?"

I asked where the question came from or something. It turned out that another wife asked her.

My reply, as best I can remember it, was:

"If you've got ammo to feed it."

Wifey said "What if you don't"

"Then no I wouldn't recommend it. You can't reliably get .22lr ammo at all, let alone at sane prices."

I understand very basic economics and a little bit about the gun industry but the .22lr situation is throwing me for a loop because it just keeps going on. Every time I am at a place that sells ammo, which includes Wally World where we buy groceries and thus go a lot, I look and if prices are reasonable at say 6 cents a round for basic stuff I buy. Obviously premium stuff like CCI .22 hunting ammo or match grade .22lr goes for more than that which is OK. To the best of my recollection in the past year I have purchased approximately 1,000 rounds of various standard .22lr and 1x 100 round box of CCI Mini Mags. That does not make for a lot of shooting and there were dry spells for months.

Honestly the availability issue is probably larger than price for most users. The lack of predictability would make it hard to plan a range trip for Saturday since they can't pick up bullets Friday after work, which is how most people shoot. Price matters too though maybe more for people who are used to paying lower prices.

Generally I would prefer to shoot centerfire ammo and choose rim fire largely for economics, more rounds downrange for my dollar. Still even if I payed 12-14 cents, which I consider quite expensive, it is a bit over half the price of Red Army 7.62x39 and a third the price of PMC brass cased 5.56.
 Suppose to some degree the price is a matter of principle. Also coming back to the availability issue these days I'll shoot centerfire ammo over .22lr because it can be replaced.

Unless a person has a enough of a stash to go shooting once in awhile when they can't find ammo, say at least a couple 500rd bricks though a real high round shooter would need more I will not suggest a .22. Additionally I suppose if a persons finances and stomach allow them to pay $50 for a brick of ammo that is fine too. So if either of those situations fit a .22lr is a fine option. However if they do not I would recommend finding an alternative choice.


Saturday, April 26, 2014

Walmart .22lr Score!! 4/26/14

Today I found myself at Wally World to pick up a couple things. Went by the gun counter just because well, I was there anyway. Saw .22lr. Purchased as much as the lady at the counter would sell me. Seems they've upped the limit for high demand stuff to 3 boxes which I think is pretty reasonable.
Price was $11.17 per 225 rd inflation adjusted 'brick'. That comes to just under 5 cents a round. I am beyond excited. Not that I am short on .22lr or anything but it's sure nice to get some more. I think .22lr is the one hold out from Firearmagedon. While I admittedly have not been looking this is the first time I have seen any .22lr at sane prices in probably a year.

Now comes the question of what to do with it. I'm going to put at least 2/3 away for the long term. The other one will probably get allocated for training or a cache.

The real question is whether today's event is a sign the .22lr situation is improving or that I just got lucky. What do you think?

Sunday, January 20, 2013

Gun Store Watch

Yesterday I saw the following mags:

Ruger Mini 30 (7.62x39) factory Magazines. About a half dozen of them. These will probably stick around unless the 1 dude who owns that rifle is Southern Arizona comes and gets them all.

S&W MP magazines. A bunch of them. Like the higher capacity ones in 9, 40 and 45. They were running $37 a pop but they were there.

CZ 75 mags. These guys are something like $50 a piece.

XD mags seem to be continually present.

All the new Beretta Storm/ PX4/ whatever mags were available.

In terms of guns pistols are selling like crazy but widely available. Could be that most decent gun shops have a lot of them (the Glock line, Sig line, S&W, etc) in comparison to black rifles. Black rifles are trickling in and flying out. Shotguns (pump) and bolt guns are totally available.

.223 is like the way too hot for the party but down to earth cool girl in that it is totally absent. I've seen a box or two 7.62x39 and .308 intermittently. You might not be able to get your favorite load but some sort of ammo is available. The venerable .22 long rifle is pretty thin. You are seeing the 50 and 100 round boxes of the more expensive stuff, there isn't an en cheapo brick of .22 to be had.

How are things in your neighborhood?

Wednesday, January 2, 2013

From Around The Web

Arma Borealis is a blog by a couple who are regularly show up around here. Good stuff. Not at all related to the other links today. Just wanted to mention it.

Chicago: Americas gun free killing fields  

America Doesn't Have a Gun Problem, It Has a Gang Problem

5 Lessons from the Panic in 2012 at Teotwawki Blog. Have what you need on hand. Know where your shortages (a relative term) are. If supplies may become interrupted act without hesitation to fill said shortages.
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