Showing posts with label worst case scenario. Show all posts
Showing posts with label worst case scenario. Show all posts

Friday, May 17, 2013

Worst Case Scenarios Army Style

The topic of worst case scenarios comes up a lot in the Survivalist community. I got to thinking about them and then unconsciously started using the type of thinking I am indoctrinated to on the problem. Not saying it is the right way parse; unlike some obvious cases such as tactical gunfighting or battle drills where that is what we do there are a lot more options here. This is just a way I am used to dealing with problems. Figured you all might be interested.

Do not plan on fully getting into intelligence preparation of the battlefield today. It is good stuff but well today is Friday so I just dowana. So I'll skip some parts, briefly touch on some parts and dig into what I feel like.

We start by defining the environment we will be operating in. Next we evaluate the threat. First we look at how the threat would fight in an unconstrained environment. For old school conventional fights against folks who have and use doctrine, like the Russians, it is pretty simple to accurately lay out how a mechanized company will act in the defense (or whatever). Now it gets interesting.

What happens now is we apply their order of battle to the terrain/ environment and come up with a situational order of battle. This is how we think the enemy would be arrayed in the current operating environment. After that we look at the enemies potential courses of action.

Right or wrong we typically look at 2 courses of action most likely and most dangerous. The most likely is just that, what we expect the enemy to do based on their tactics, the terrain, etc. Most Dangerous is if the enemy decided to go 'all in' with an aggressive high risk/ high reward plan what it is what we think they would do.

What we do after identifying the templates two plans is figure out the differences between the plans. Those differences are targeted as part of our overall intelligence collection plan to hopefully determine the enemies disposition (most likely, most deadly or something else). Along with high value targets these differences will make up the bulk of our intelligence collection efforts.

It is worth mentioning that neither the most likely COA or most dangerous COA are exaggerations or fantasies. Both need to be grounded in the enemies capabilities and if possible historic activities.

Obviously you will not be looking for the enemies scouts to be templated at location 1 vs location 2, obstacles in a given location or battle positions to determine between 2 COA's as a survivalist. However the principle is the same.

Example time:
Lets say Bob thinks our country has real economic problems. He sees the best case as 8-15% real inflation coupled with a stagnant economy a la late 70's to early 80's stagflation. The worst case he sees is a complete economic collapse of Argentina like proportions. So obviously Bob will not be templating these COA's on acetate then looking for the differences. He will however be identifying the differences all the same.

Some differences might be:
-Continued increase in the monetary supply (most dangerous)
-Rapidly increasing inflation (most dangerous)
-Decrease/ a slowing of the increase in government spending (most likely)
- Slow increase or steady inflation (most likely)

Next we would need to drill down those differences (Priority Intelligence Requirements AKA PIR) into specific identifiable indicators. We will do this for one of our PIR:
-Rapidly increasing inflation (most dangerous)
        -Inflation above 9%
        -Inflation increasing more than 1% in a month
        -The spread between inflation as measured by .GOV and Shadow Stats increasing 25% in a month.

Anyway after a bit more consideration I will share my thoughts on Worst Case Scenarios.

Imagine a bunch of drunks driving around with a trunk full of dynamite to get revenge on a psycho murderer during a tornado. There are multiple risks in play. It should be noted this method only really works to compare similar courses of action (in this case risks). It would not work to compare an economic collapse to a pandemic or Chinese invasion. Looking at 2-3 areas that worry you could be assessed between most likely and most dangerous to determine whether the drunk guy behind the wheel will drive you off a bridge, the tornado will get you or the dynamite will blow up. Hope my iffy analogy makes sense to you.

Saturday, December 8, 2012

Quick Shout Out To Old Grouch's Military Surplus

My recent sleeping bag order from Old Grouchs Military Surplus arrived. They called them excellent and as far as I can tell it is new. I really like these sleep systems and it would be an uphill argument to say there is a better option out there anywhere near the same price point. They raised the price to $100 but they are still availableCommander Zero noted they are now selling the new MARPAT ILBE Rucks for $100.

I also picked up one of these to keep the NOD and a few other key electronics in. It would be pretty handy for a variety of scenarios.

Old Grouchs Military Surplus are a company I just cannot think of anything bad to say about. Their products are priced below or near competitors. Descriptions which are significant in the pricing and utility of surplus stuff are conservative if not outright generous in the favor of buyers. I am always surprised about how fast the stuff shows up. This time they tossed in a P-38 which is a nice touch.

Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Question of the Day: What Scenario Worries You Most and What Are You Doing To Prepare For It?

The title pretty much says it all. I am curious what is really worrying you and what you are doing to prepare for it. Please answer in the comments section.

Sunday, February 26, 2012

Wyoming House advances doomsday bill

House Bill 85 passed on first reading by a voice vote. It would create a state-run government continuity task force, which would study and prepare Wyoming for potential catastrophes, from disruptions in food and energy supplies to a complete meltdown of the federal government.


The task force would look at the feasibility of:


Wyoming issuing its own alternative currency, if needed. And House members approved an amendment Friday by state Rep. Kermit Brown, R-Laramie, to have the task force also examine conditions under which Wyoming would need to implement its own military draft, raise a standing army, and acquire strike aircraft and an aircraft carrier.


The bill’s sponsor, state Rep. David Miller, R-Riverton, has said he doesn’t anticipate any major crises hitting America anytime soon. But with the national debt exceeding $15 trillion and protest movements growing around the country, Miller said Wyoming — which has a comparatively good economy and sound state finances — needs to make sure it’s protected should any unexpected emergency hit the U.S.
Several House members spoke in favor of the legislation, saying there was no harm in preparing for the worst.


“I don’t think there’s anyone in this room today what would come up here and say that this country is in good shape, that the world is stable and in good shape — because that is clearly not the case,” state Rep. Lorraine Quarberg, R-Thermopolis, said. “To put your head in the sand and think that nothing bad’s going to happen, and that we have no obligation to the citizens of the state of Wyoming to at least have the discussion, is not healthy.”

Read more here.
 
It seems like a pretty solid plan. My only question is what would Wyoming, which unless my state geography is seriously off is landlocked, would do with an aircraft carrier.

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Balance

Something that comes up far too often is people only thinking about one scenario. They get tunnel vision and only focus on how something is good or bad in relation to that scenario. These scenarios generally seems to be either a total economic meltdown or a full on end of the world as we know it type. I believe this to be fundamentally flawed.


The thing is that just like in preparing our bodies with physical training we do not know what sort of scenario we will face. We can look at what has happened in the past or what is likely to happen in the future but at the end of the day those are just guesses. If someone from the future told me the only scenario I needed to worry about was an economic almost hyperinflationary melt down in 6 years I know how I would prepare. I would invest in precious metals and real estate as well as some foreign currencies. I would also borrow (at a fixed rate) as much cash as I could get shortly before this disaster and put it into the above mentioned 3 areas. The same way that if that all knowing future me said all I needed to physically worry about is being able to throw a great right cross to take out a strong arm robber during that melt down I know how I would prepare. I would start immediately taking boxing classes to improve my striking as well as lifting heavy (compound and explosive movements) and spending a lot of time hitting speed and heavy bags.

The thing is that we don’t have a magic friend from the future to help us out. Let us say that I took the above mentioned physical fitness plan. After 6 years of focused heavy lifting I would be easily 25 pounds heavier and pretty darn strong. Thanks to the boxing and lifting I would hit pretty darn hard. But what if a different scenario went down? Say I needed to run 10 miles or climb a big wall. Maybe I would be able to do these and maybe I wouldn’t. In any case if that happened I would sure be wishing I had spent a bit less time power cleaning and a little more on the track. Instead of trying to get my body weight/ muscle mass as high as possible I would probably be wishing I’d stayed closer to my normal weight.

Apply that same logic to preparedness efforts. By planning only for a certain scenario I put myself at risk. If things went a different way and things didn’t melt down then (even because of interference) metals prices dropped significantly. Through an amazing form of oddness metals were low and there was lots of unemployment and property values went down the toilet. My 6 years of focused effort put me into a bad spot without any particular other bad scenario happening. That is not to even mention the bunch of money I borrowed and dumped into those same two losing vehicles of PM’s and property.

Saturday, March 19, 2011

Something that comes up far too often is people only thinking about one scenario. They get tunnel vision and only focus on how something is good or bad in relation to that scenario. These scenarios generally seems to be either a total economic meltdown or a full on end of the world as we know it type. I believe this to be fundamentally flawed.


The thing is that just like in preparing our bodies with physical training we do not know what sort of scenario we will face. We can look at what has happened in the past or what is likely to happen in the future but at the end of the day those are just guesses. If someone from the future told me the only scenario I needed to worry about was an economic almost hyperinflationary melt down in 6 years I know how I would prepare. I would invest in precious metals and real estate as well as some foreign currencies. I would also borrow (at a fixed rate) as much cash as I could get shortly before this disaster and put it into the above mentioned 3 areas. The same way that if that all knowing future me said all I needed to physically worry about is being able to throw a great right cross to take out a strong arm robber during that melt down I know how I would prepare. I would start immediately taking boxing classes to improve my striking as well as lifting heavy (compound and explosive movements) and spending a lot of time hitting speed and heavy bags.

The thing is that we don’t have a magic friend from the future to help us out. Let us say that I took the above mentioned physical fitness plan. After 6 years of focused heavy lifting I would be easily 25 pounds heavier and pretty darn strong. Thanks to the boxing and lifting I would hit pretty darn hard. But what if a different scenario went down? Say I needed to run 10 miles or climb a big wall. Maybe I would be able to do these and maybe I wouldn’t. In any case if that happened I would sure be wishing I had spent a bit less time power cleaning and a little more on the track. Instead of trying to get my body weight/ muscle mass as high as possible I would probably be wishing I’d stayed closer to my normal weight.

Apply that same logic to preparedness efforts. By planning only for a certain scenario I put myself at risk. If things went a different way and things didn’t melt down then (even because of interference) metals prices dropped significantly. Through an amazing form of oddness metals were low and there was lots of unemployment and property values went down the toilet. My 6 years of focused effort put me into a bad spot without any particular other bad scenario happening. That is not to even mention the bunch of money I borrowed and dumped into those same two losing vehicles of PM’s and property.

Monday, December 13, 2010

Someone's Got a Case of the Mondays

As a blogger every now and then I have the idea for my next post fully formed and the thing practically written in my head when I see a post elsewhere that says exactly what I was going to say better than I could. This morning was sort of one of those days. SHTF Blog's post Prepper Burnout- Identify and combat it really struck a cord with me. 

I've been feeling sort of burned out recently. Since I got back last Friday it has been evident enough that people I talk to are noticing it during conversation. I got to really thinking about why this was last night. I laid there for about 3 hours just thinking.

A bit of it is just life. Work has recently (last 2-3 months or so) been busy, not particularly rewarding and more stressful than in the past. That is definitely a factor. I am pretty ready to take a break for the holidays.

I got to thinking that a lot of it however is what SHTF Blog keenly identified as Prepper Burnout. Right now our big push is to become debt free by paying off my school loan. We are putting an almost rediculous percentage of our income toward that goal. Things are working but it isn't fun. While we have decent reserves our general operating budget is tight. This is creating a lot of stress in our finances that would not otherwise exist. The payoff date is pretty darn close so it isn't really worth tweeking things. However if we had it to do over again a slightly less aggressive (about 10-15% less a month) repayment plan would have given us most of the benefit with a lot less stress.

Also not being colocated with a lot of my preps stresses me. Not so much in a worring about if things happen and I am not there sort of way as I am comfortable with our situation here. More that I got a lot of joy in seeing my stocks and watching stuff accumulate. It makes the work and effort I put into stuff worthwhile and also has a real calming effect on me. The work is still there but the calming effects are not.

It probably doesn't help that we are currently living through a preparedness scenario. Just because it isn't a fun, quick or sexy scenario doesn't make it any less real. Employment is bad, the economy is at best uncertain, crime is up, there is inflation in normal purchases and all kinds of other bad stuff. That you can't carry a rifle everywhere and there is still electricity doesn't mean real stuff isn't going down.

Anyway enough with the pitty party. The real question is what am I going to do about it. Today I started making a couple conscious efforts and made a bit of progress. The day sucked especially bad and my mood is, at least relatively speaking pretty good. The first thing I decided was to do at least a couple things in a day just because I enjoy them. Today I had a doughnut for breakfast on a work day. Also I had a little time with no TV/ computer or other noise just hanging out with Walker. That was nice and took my mind off things.

Really wanted to get back into the gym today but it just didn't work with my schedule. Tomorrow I think it will. Lifting once in a blue moon or a couple times in a row randomly won't do much for my body but I enjoy it and it gets those good endorphins going. Lastly I am just trying to enjoy the little things and force myself to be happier. Remember, fake it until you make it. Going home, seeing friends and family, shooting my own guns, repacking all my new awesome stuff and just plain taking a break will hopefully help a lot.

See you all tomorrow
Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...

Popular Posts